Updates Bulletins

Provide USDA Updates

Doane Economist Reaction to Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Report

Date : 31st Mar 2020

In this issue, the reports were a mixture of market bullish and bearish forecasts and updates. The quarterly USDA Grain Stocks report issued Tuesday focused upon domestic grain and soybean stocks as of March 1. These totals often provide significant insights into demand strength during the December-February quarter. The corn total at 7.953 billion bushels totaled 209 million bushels below industry forecasts. For the second consecutive quarter, it implied much stronger than expected feed use. Soybeans stocks at 2.253 billion bushels slightly exceeded industry expectations and implied low second quarter residual use. It is possible that the data will eventually lead to an upward revision to the size of the 2019 harvest. Wheat stocks at 1.412 billion bushels were 25 million less that the trade average forecast. It may result in a small adjustment to the USDA wheat residual use forecast. The USDA simultaneously released its annual Prospective Plantings report, which proved bearish for corn and bullish for soybeans, since corn acreage jumped to 96.990 million (versus the average forecast at 94.253 million), whereas soybean acres were up less than expected at 83.510 million (compared to the forecast average at 84.669 million acres). Projected spring wheat plantings at 12.590 million were very close to expectations of 12.615 million. The cotton figure was a second major high acreage surprise with farmers indicating intentions to plant 13.703 million acres and only down 35,000 acres from last year.

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NOPA REPORT March 16, 2020

Date : 16th Mar 2020

The February 2020 NOPA Report was released on March 16, 2020. NOPA reported that members crushed 166.3 million bushels of soybeans in February. This met expectations for a new record total for February as crushings were modestly above both Doane’s and the average of published analyst estimates. Members produced 1.910 billion lbs. of soybean oil in the month, versus 2.035 billion lbs. in January and 1.807 billion lbs. produced last year. This pegged an oil yield of 11.49 lbs. per bushel. NOPA members produced 3.911 million tons of soybean meal in February, which results in an improvement in the monthly soybean meal yield to 47.04 lbs. per bushel.

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Economists' Reactions to March WASDE 2020

Date : 10th Mar 2020

Corn futures prices held gains of three to four cents before and after the release of the monthly supply/demand report. The soybean complex appeared to shrug off this month’s reports for the most part. Beans lost a portion of earlier gains following the somewhat bearish world figures, while the soybean products were little changed. Wheat futures drifted lower following today’s report despite slightly supportive world stocks figures. Cotton prices were moderately volatile, trading both sides of unchanged after the report with later trading favoring to small gains.

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NOPA February 2020

Date : 18th Feb 2020

In this issue, NOPA reported that members crushed 176.9 million bushels in January. This was the strongest monthly figure on record exceeding the previous record of 175.4 million bushels crushed last October. The monthly figure was well above both Doane’s and the average of the trade’s expectations. Members produced 2.035 billion lbs. of soybean oil in the month, versus 2.012 billion lbs. in December and 1.993 million lbs. produced last year. This pegged an oil yield of 11.50 lbs. per bushel.  

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Economists' Reactions to February WASDE 2020

Date : 11th Feb 2020

In this issue, ahead of USDA's reports, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were 2 to 3 cents lower, winter wheat futures were 2 to 4 cents lower, spring wheat futures were 1-plus cents lower and cotton futures were 25 to 30 points higher. Going into the last hour of trading, corn and soybean futures prices were roughly in line with the pre report prices. Wheat prices were decidedly lower, losing upwards of 10 cents in Chicago soft red contracts and 3-4 cents lower in the hard wheat futures. Cotton prices remained on the positive side, but just barely holding onto gains of a few points.

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Weekly Review and Outlook February 10, 2020

Date : 10th Feb 2020

In this issue, the coronavirus continued spreading through China and in other places around the world, but the markets mostly recovered their footing last week after reacting badly the week prior. Accelerating South American soybean production and significantly lower Brazilian prices remain a major deterrent to U.S. soybean rallies. Despite some renewed firmness in global wheat quotes, U.S. wheat sales proved relatively weak and much more.  

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Weekly Review and Outlook February 3, 2020

Date : 03rd Feb 2020

In this issue, the ongoing spread of the coronavirus through China in particular and the world in general became an increasingly large issue in the financial and commodity markets last week. The soybean market is now facing two big bearish obstacles. Slippage in global wheat quotes, likely combined with the bearish market atmosphere, also weighed upon U.S. wheat prices. The cattle market couldn’t avoid the commodity sector downdraft created by coronavirus fears last week.  

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Weekly Review and Outlook January 24, 2020

Date : 27th Jan 2020

In this issue,soybean futures proved less amenable to optimism last week, with ideas that the recent onset of the Brazilian harvest implies little Chinese buying of U.S. beans in the near future. Talk of the negative impact of a major coronavirus outbreak in China and possibly around the world also apparently dragged bean prices lower. Rumors that Russia is set to impose limits on its grain exports, along with labor issues in France and Australian drought, boosted nearby soft red winter wheat prices to fresh 18-month highs last Wednesday. But prices ended the weak on a poor note, possibly due to renewed coronavirus concerns.  

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Weekly Review and Outlook for January 20, 2020

Date : 20th Jan 2020

In this issue, the early-winter crop market rally seemed to lose upward momentum as the January 15 signing date for the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal loomed. Doubts about China’s ability to buy the promised amount of U.S. ag goods undercut the market Thursday, but Friday’s huge rebound seemingly repudiated that bearishness. Although the USDA’s January 10 Supply and Demand numbers for oats were largely left unchanged, the market moved higher again last week. We still suspect the 20% annual drop in the December stocks figure is supporting the market. Soybean futures tended to mutedly track shifts in corn values last week, which was rather surprising from a historical standpoint. The late-week bounce from major technical support should bode well for this week’s activity.  

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NOPA Released on January 15 2020

Date : 15th Jan 2020

NOPA shocks with sharply higher soyoil stocks, stronger December crush. NOPA released its December 2019 monthly crush report on January 15, 2020. NOPA reported that members crushed 174.8 million bushels of soybeans in December. These crushings topped the high-end of all published trade guesses ranging from 168.2 million to 174.0 million bushels. The average forecast was for 171.6 million bushels, placing the results up 3.2 million from expectations. The crush came in above the prior record for December of 171.8 million bushels in 2018 and were the second-highest total for any month behind 175.4 million in October 2019.

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