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NOPA May 15, 2020

Date : 15th May 2020

NOPA reported that members crushed 171.8 million bushels of soybeans in April. This was a new record for the month and came slightly above the midpoint of the wide range of published trade estimates from 163 million to 177 million bushels. Members produced 1.986 billion lbs. of soybean oil in April, versus 2.096 billion lbs. in March and 1.875 billion lbs. produced last year. This pegged an oil yield of 11.56 lbs. per bushel. NOPA members produced 4.045 million tons of soybean meal in April, which resulted in an improvement in the monthly soybean meal yield to 47.11 lbs. per bushel.

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WASDE Report May 2020

Date : 12th May 2020

In this issue,USDA put out their monthly WASDE Report on May 12, 2020. This is the first look at estimates for Marketing Year (MY) 2020-21. This was a much-anticipated report, as it usually is, but more so this year due to COVID-19 restrictions and the effect they have had on crops supply and demand as well as the food supply chain. Doane economists summarize and react to the report in the areas of Corn, Soy Products, Wheat and Cotton. 

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Canadian Crop Report May 2020

Date : 07th May 2020

In this issue, Statistics Canada released its Principal Field Crop Areas, March 2020 report Thursday morning, May 7, 2020. The data collection survey was conducted between March 2 and March 30 and included about 11,500 farmers. Statistics Canada warns that collection of data was complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic, giving an example where telephone interviews were suspended on March 16 in order to focus on mission-critical programs. Statistics Canada says this impacted the survey’s typically high response rate. We are noting that the number of farmers surveyed matches the total reported last year. However, the suspension of telephone interviews may suggest less follow-up qualification of the data in order to clarify reported data. Consequently, Statistics Canada warns “caution should be exercised when using these estimates”.  

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NOPA April 15, 2020

Date : 15th Apr 2020

NOPA released its March 2020 monthly crush report on April 15, 2020. NOPA reported that members crushed 181.4 million bushels of soybeans in March. This came in well above the range of published trade estimates and was record-large for any month. Members produced 2.096 billion lbs. of soybean oil in the month, versus 1.910 billion lbs. in February and 2.000 billion lbs. produced last year. This pegged an oil yield of 11.56 lbs. per bushel. NOPA members produced 4.269 million tons of soybean meal in March, which resulted in an improvement in the monthly soybean meal yield to 47.07 lbs. per bushel.

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Economists' Reactions to April WASDE 2020

Date : 09th Apr 2020

In this issue, ahead of USDA's reports, corn futures were trading narrowly mixed, soybeans were 7 to 10 cents higher, winter wheat futures were mostly 7 to 13 cents higher, spring wheat futures were around 4 cents higher and cotton futures were 3 to 12 points lower. At the close of trading, each of the commodities was trading higher. Soybeans closed up by 9 cents, corn by 2 cents, winter wheats 10-14 cents higher, spring wheat 2 cents higher, and cotton up nearly ½ cent. One important note: USDA analysts dealt with estimating corn demand for the first time this month with the dramatic impacts from the nationwide efforts to battle the COVID-19 pandemic at the forefront of the demand analysis. USDA had recognized modest impacts in the February and March WASDE reports, whereas the April data out today recognized it as the major factor for corn demand adjustments, as was the case for some other commodities such as cotton.

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Doane Economist Reaction to Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Report

Date : 31st Mar 2020

In this issue, the reports were a mixture of market bullish and bearish forecasts and updates. The quarterly USDA Grain Stocks report issued Tuesday focused upon domestic grain and soybean stocks as of March 1. These totals often provide significant insights into demand strength during the December-February quarter. The corn total at 7.953 billion bushels totaled 209 million bushels below industry forecasts. For the second consecutive quarter, it implied much stronger than expected feed use. Soybeans stocks at 2.253 billion bushels slightly exceeded industry expectations and implied low second quarter residual use. It is possible that the data will eventually lead to an upward revision to the size of the 2019 harvest. Wheat stocks at 1.412 billion bushels were 25 million less that the trade average forecast. It may result in a small adjustment to the USDA wheat residual use forecast. The USDA simultaneously released its annual Prospective Plantings report, which proved bearish for corn and bullish for soybeans, since corn acreage jumped to 96.990 million (versus the average forecast at 94.253 million), whereas soybean acres were up less than expected at 83.510 million (compared to the forecast average at 84.669 million acres). Projected spring wheat plantings at 12.590 million were very close to expectations of 12.615 million. The cotton figure was a second major high acreage surprise with farmers indicating intentions to plant 13.703 million acres and only down 35,000 acres from last year.

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NOPA REPORT March 16, 2020

Date : 16th Mar 2020

The February 2020 NOPA Report was released on March 16, 2020. NOPA reported that members crushed 166.3 million bushels of soybeans in February. This met expectations for a new record total for February as crushings were modestly above both Doane’s and the average of published analyst estimates. Members produced 1.910 billion lbs. of soybean oil in the month, versus 2.035 billion lbs. in January and 1.807 billion lbs. produced last year. This pegged an oil yield of 11.49 lbs. per bushel. NOPA members produced 3.911 million tons of soybean meal in February, which results in an improvement in the monthly soybean meal yield to 47.04 lbs. per bushel.

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Economists' Reactions to March WASDE 2020

Date : 10th Mar 2020

Corn futures prices held gains of three to four cents before and after the release of the monthly supply/demand report. The soybean complex appeared to shrug off this month’s reports for the most part. Beans lost a portion of earlier gains following the somewhat bearish world figures, while the soybean products were little changed. Wheat futures drifted lower following today’s report despite slightly supportive world stocks figures. Cotton prices were moderately volatile, trading both sides of unchanged after the report with later trading favoring to small gains.

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NOPA February 2020

Date : 18th Feb 2020

In this issue, NOPA reported that members crushed 176.9 million bushels in January. This was the strongest monthly figure on record exceeding the previous record of 175.4 million bushels crushed last October. The monthly figure was well above both Doane’s and the average of the trade’s expectations. Members produced 2.035 billion lbs. of soybean oil in the month, versus 2.012 billion lbs. in December and 1.993 million lbs. produced last year. This pegged an oil yield of 11.50 lbs. per bushel.  

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Economists' Reactions to February WASDE 2020

Date : 11th Feb 2020

In this issue, ahead of USDA's reports, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were 2 to 3 cents lower, winter wheat futures were 2 to 4 cents lower, spring wheat futures were 1-plus cents lower and cotton futures were 25 to 30 points higher. Going into the last hour of trading, corn and soybean futures prices were roughly in line with the pre report prices. Wheat prices were decidedly lower, losing upwards of 10 cents in Chicago soft red contracts and 3-4 cents lower in the hard wheat futures. Cotton prices remained on the positive side, but just barely holding onto gains of a few points.

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