Updates Bulletins

Provide USDA Updates

Weekly Review and Outlook for January 20, 2020

Date : 20th Jan 2020

In this issue, the early-winter crop market rally seemed to lose upward momentum as the January 15 signing date for the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal loomed. Doubts about China’s ability to buy the promised amount of U.S. ag goods undercut the market Thursday, but Friday’s huge rebound seemingly repudiated that bearishness. Although the USDA’s January 10 Supply and Demand numbers for oats were largely left unchanged, the market moved higher again last week. We still suspect the 20% annual drop in the December stocks figure is supporting the market. Soybean futures tended to mutedly track shifts in corn values last week, which was rather surprising from a historical standpoint. The late-week bounce from major technical support should bode well for this week’s activity.  

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NOPA Released on January 15 2020

Date : 15th Jan 2020

NOPA shocks with sharply higher soyoil stocks, stronger December crush. NOPA released its December 2019 monthly crush report on January 15, 2020. NOPA reported that members crushed 174.8 million bushels of soybeans in December. These crushings topped the high-end of all published trade guesses ranging from 168.2 million to 174.0 million bushels. The average forecast was for 171.6 million bushels, placing the results up 3.2 million from expectations. The crush came in above the prior record for December of 171.8 million bushels in 2018 and were the second-highest total for any month behind 175.4 million in October 2019.

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Weekly Review and Outlook for January 13, 2020

Date : 13th Jan 2020

In this issue, Although the industry was hoping for support from a smaller corn crop forecast on Friday’s USDA reports, as well as increased exports after the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade agreement is signed this week, corn futures sagged as the reports loomed. The fact that futures bounced strongly from the post-report breakdown and ended the week on a strong note suggests sustained strength in the short run. Last week’s news indicated Chinese buying had boosted that country’s U.S. pork imports, and the U.S. export total, to all-time records last November. However, the weakness of the November hog and pork markets seemingly persuaded traders that vigorous Chinese buying won’t support the market as strongly as previously thought. Thus, futures fell rather sharply, thereby reducing the premiums already built into prices.

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Economists' Reaction to the January USDA Reports: WASDE and More

Date : 10th Jan 2020

In this issue, today, USDA put out a series of reports, like the January WASDE, Crop Production, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings. USDA raised corn and soybean production which surprised the market. But today’s update includes “significant” unharvested area and is subject to revision “later this spring.” This is an important caveat that means the verdict is still out on crop size. USDA put out a special note in conjunction with today's data.  

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Weekly Review and Outlook for January 6, 2020

Date : 06th Jan 2020

In this issue, the crop markets moved generally higher during the late-2019 holiday season, although corn lagged gains in soybeans and wheat. News that the U.S. and China are set to sign the Phase 1 trade agreement on January 15 gave the markets a boost on January 2, but nearby corn futures gave back the advance on January 3. After sustaining a strong rally since early September, cattle futures turned lower last week. Friday’s drop caused the first February futures close below 40-day moving average support since mid-September. The first-quarter outlook still seems rather promising, but technical factors are now pointing lower.

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