17 January 2020
In this issue, "Further Insight into USDA’s Latest Crop Reports," "Fewer Acres, Sliding Conditions Add Risk to 2020 U.S. Winter Wheat Output," "Phase 1 of U.S./China Accord: Success is up to China," and "Market Watch Table."
10 January 2020
In this issue, "2019 in Review While Looking Ahead at 2020: A Look at Trade, A Wet Planting Season and More," "Minimum Freight Rates are Being Negotiated," "Raw Commodity Sector Coming Back to Life; Ag Markets Likely to Benefit in 2020," "Drought Degradation in Texas, Midwest Still Drought-free," and "Market Watch Table."
03 January 2020
In this issue, "The U.S. Hog Herd Continues Expanding," "EPA Keeps Renewable Fuel Targets Unchanged," "Winter Wheat Survey Results," "U.S./Japan Mini-Trade Deal Details," and "Market Watch Table."
17 January 2020
In this issue, there was rumors of China buying US corn late this week. NOPA data points to rebound in crush demand. Soybean meal futures follow soybean market lower. Palm oil continues to retreat on lower demand ideas. There are expectations that the US/China trade agreement will boost Chinese imports of US wheats.
11 January 2020
In this issue, corn ending stocks projected lower despite larger crop estimate. USDA published its monthly WASDE report today. Everyone is anticipating U.S./China Phase One trade signing on January 15. Jan WASDE proves to be non-event for soyoil. NOPA crush expected to rebound in December. December 1 stocks, 2020 U.S. winter wheat plantings prove bullish.
03 January 2020
In this issue, expectations for corn production adjustment next Friday in the January Crop Production report. Monthly soybean crush report disappoints. Global veg oils rally further on tightening palm outlook. U.S. soymeal export data not showing signs of improving. Doane grower survey finds fewer winter wheat acres.
13 December 2019
In this issue, corn export demand hurt by lower supplies and strong competition from South America and Ukraine. U.S. wheat plantings expected to see modest rebound in 2020 despite lower price ideas before gradually improving. 2020 soybean plantings seen rebounding to 83.5 million acres, to reach 84.5 million by 2023. Texas cotton production losses limiting output to 20.2 million bales and much more.
08 November 2019
In this issue, global trends and historical data are discussed for corn, soybeans, cotton, rice and wheat, and forecasts are included for the next 10 years. Of course, the "trade war" with China is a big factor for many of the crops today and the forecasts for the next 10 years, affecting more than just the U.S. and China. At the time of publishing, the trade war had not been resolved, but Phase One has been discussed with plans in the works for the leaders to sign. Other factors besides the trade situation affect the forecasts, such as the Asian Growth Center of China, India, Other Asia and East Asia accounting for over half of the world population. The area consists of extreme poverty that is enjoying economic growth, which is very important for commodity consumption, but especially food products. African Swine Fever is still a problem for many countries until a vaccine is discovered.
02 December 2019
This is the last Doane Advisory Services' Crop Weather Update for 2019. Corn harvest is still not to 90%, which is typically at 96%-97% nationally at the beginning of December. Cotton harvest is above where it should be as producers make their way through the huge Texas crop. Soybean harvest is almost complete except for a couple northern states where winter weather has hit early and hard this year. The next Crop/Weather Update will not be until Spring 2020.
25 November 2019
In this issue, corn harvest is still behind, so much so that the USDA will be releasing Crop Progress Reports into December this year. Soybean harvest also had an extra report week and is at 94% complete. Cotton harvest is on schedule. Winter wheat condition is the same as last week. Three weather maps are included to inform on forecasted precipitation and temperatures.
18 November 2019
In this issue, U.S. producers are working hard to finish harvesting corn, soybeans and cotton. Cotton is close to the 10-year average and much above last year. Soybean farmers have played catch-up this year and are equal to last year's rate. However, the story for corn farmers is not as good. Harvest completion rates are still way behind. Winter wheat plantings are on track but conditions are lower than usual.
15 January 2020
In this issue, China and the U.S. sign the phase one deal today. The View From Here is "The Commodity Markets May Be Coming Back." USMCA should be passed by the Senate today or tomorrow. USDA is thinking about holding the last MFP 2 payment to see how the markets react to the signing of the phase one deal with China.
16 December 2019
In this issue, soybeans rallied ahead of the Phase 1 trade pact between the U.S. and China, with improved Chinese buying giving prices a boost as well. Cattlemen seemed to slow their marketings in late fall. That probably won’t hurt short-term price prospects, but it raises concerns about the mid-2020 outlook. Japan’s parliament also accepted the bilateral U.S.-Japan trade deal. That accord now seems set for short-term implementation. The View From Here article is "Farmers Are More Confident About Farmland Values."
13 November 2019
In this issue, adverse weather conditions have resulted in 2019 U.S. summer crop harvests progressing in fits and starts this fall while also leading to some early concerns for the planting and emergence of the 2020 U.S. winter wheat crop. USDA has moved somewhat lower with its latest estimate of the 2019 U.S. corn crop, while the agency maintained its previous soybean projection in the November WASDE report. In addition to offering some guidance to the 2019/20 crop, USDA also published an early glimpse at its 10-year projections out to 2029/30. One key market driver at the forefront of the trade is the ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China, and it appears that there are still some hurdles that need to be cleared before both sides will seal a preliminary agreement in ink. Cattle prices have surged following their dive in August as holiday demand approaches.
17 January 2020
In this issue, doubts about Chinese buying strength sank the crop markets this week. Equities continued climbing. Recent data suggest USDA’s estimate of domestic corn usage is understated. The U.S. and China signed the Phase 1 trade deal Wednesday.
10 January 2020
In this issue, grain and soy traders were positioning themselves for today’s USDA data this week. Premiums in hog futures made them vulnerable to a big setback. Farmland price remained firm in 2019. The U.S. and China will sign the Phase 1 trade agreement next week.
03 January 2020
In this issue, the crop markets continued edging higher as the trade deal approaches completion. U.S. dollar weakness seemingly triggered a gold breakout. Weak transport demand is hurting big firms overinvested in railcars. The U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal will be signed January 15.
20 January 2020
In this issue, the early-winter crop market rally seemed to lose upward momentum as the January 15 signing date for the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal loomed. Doubts about China’s ability to buy the promised amount of U.S. ag goods undercut the market Thursday, but Friday’s huge rebound seemingly repudiated that bearishness. Although the USDA’s January 10 Supply and Demand numbers for oats were largely left unchanged, the market moved higher again last week. We still suspect the 20% annual drop in the December stocks figure is supporting the market. Soybean futures tended to mutedly track shifts in corn values last week, which was rather surprising from a historical standpoint. The late-week bounce from major technical support should bode well for this week’s activity.
15 January 2020
NOPA shocks with sharply higher soyoil stocks, stronger December crush. NOPA released its December 2019 monthly crush report on January 15, 2020. NOPA reported that members crushed 174.8 million bushels of soybeans in December. These crushings topped the high-end of all published trade guesses ranging from 168.2 million to 174.0 million bushels. The average forecast was for 171.6 million bushels, placing the results up 3.2 million from expectations. The crush came in above the prior record for December of 171.8 million bushels in 2018 and were the second-highest total for any month behind 175.4 million in October 2019.
13 January 2020
In this issue, Although the industry was hoping for support from a smaller corn crop forecast on Friday’s USDA reports, as well as increased exports after the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade agreement is signed this week, corn futures sagged as the reports loomed. The fact that futures bounced strongly from the post-report breakdown and ended the week on a strong note suggests sustained strength in the short run. Last week’s news indicated Chinese buying had boosted that country’s U.S. pork imports, and the U.S. export total, to all-time records last November. However, the weakness of the November hog and pork markets seemingly persuaded traders that vigorous Chinese buying won’t support the market as strongly as previously thought. Thus, futures fell rather sharply, thereby reducing the premiums already built into prices.
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