29 May 2020
In this issue, "Long-Term Drivers in Global Agriculture" and "Seasonal Price Performances for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat."
22 May 2020
In this issue, "CFAP Details Released Under Much Scrutiny" and "Doane Looks at 2020/2021 Crop Supply/Demand Scenarios."
15 May 2020
In this issue, "Major Changes on a Global Scale Since November 2019," "Insights from the May 2020 WASDE," "Livestock Sector and COVID-19 Update," and Market Watch table
29 May 2020
Grains and soybeans rallied during the holiday shortened week. There was some relief on news of more economic activity as the nation and world started to emerge from the setbacks associated with the pandemic. Plantings progressed well in most areas of the country. USDA reported corn condition began the growing season at a good indication of 70% good to excellent.
22 May 2020
In this issue, Beijing moved on Friday to impose legislation that raises concerns about Hong Kong’s future as a finance hub. Beijing's move spurred outrage in the city and abroad. President Trump said details on Beijing’s plans aren’t yet known and promised to “address that issue very strongly” if China proceeds. China issued a separate pledge to implement Phase 1 of its trade deal with the U.S., despite a growing number of geopolitical setbacks. This comes as the pace of recriminations between the U.S. and China is complicating the picture for investors. The virtual wheat crop tour in Kansas and neighboring Plains states replaced the long-held Wheat Quality Council Tour. Because it was conducted at a different time and under different circumstances, it is questionable as to whether it should be compared to past years’ tours. Participants did project lower yields and production in several states, including leading state Kansas. Forecast maps over the next week are indicating lots of rain, which could then help fields recover millions of bushels of potential. Plus, our usual bullish and bearish points to consider for each commodity and their supply and demand balance sheets.
15 May 2020
In this issue, exceedingly bearish new corn crop forecast with record yields, production, and supplies.Market surprised by large increase in soybean old-crop ending stocks forecast. NOPA soyoil stocks the highest monthly since June 2013. USDA releases its highest ever May 1 winter wheat yield forecast.
23 April 2020
In this issue, COVID-19 has affected the crop outlooks for the coming planting season for corn, soybeans and cotton. The global pandemic is affecting wheat the least; however, the looming recession and possible depression have producers changing their minds on planting decisions which can affect all crops. Phase One trade agreement between U.S. and China brings an upswing in Chinese imports of U.S. corn, and U.S. soybean farmers remain optimistic for increased export demand from China following the Phase One trade agreement. Forecasts for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton through 2024/25 are also included.
07 May 2020
In this issue, global trends and historical data are discussed for corn, soybeans, cotton, rice and wheat, and forecasts are included for the next 10 years. Since the last report, Phase One has been agreed upon. However, COVID-19 restrictions have caused supply and demand problems for many commodities. Other factors besides the trade situation affect the forecasts, such as the Asian Growth Center of China, India, Other Asia and East Asia accounting for over half of the world population. The area consists of extreme poverty that is enjoying economic growth, which is very important for commodity consumption, but especially food products. African Swine Fever is still a problem for many countries until a vaccine is discovered. Some trade issues have been resolved, such as USMCA and the U.S. and Japan agreement.
01 June 2020
USDA reported the busiest week of the growing season to date with each of the major crops reporting condition ratings while plantings continue for the spring crops and harvesting just begins for winter wheat. The corn rating jumped to 74% good to excellent and initial ratings for soybeans at 70% and spring wheat at 80% were higher than expected. Cotton was low at 44% good to excellent. Missouri and N Dakota continue to struggle with planting progress for multiple crops.
26 May 2020
In this issue, corn and soybean plantings still progressing at a fast pace. USDA reports corn condition rating for first time this season at 70% good to excellent. North Dakota's planting progress still much delayed for multiple crops. Cotton plantings ahead of normal in Texas, but parts of the Delta remain much delayed.
18 May 2020
In this issue, corn and soybean planting progress is ahead of schedule. Cotton planting progress is right on schedule with the 10-year average. Rice planting progress is on schedule, too. This was the first week for rice condition which came in at 62% good and excellent. Spring wheat planting progress is below the 10-year average. Winter wheat condition continues to decrease.
19 May 2020
In this issue, on May 12, USDA released its latest Supply/Demand reports. As is typical, the agency included the new-crop forecasts for wheat, soybeans, corn and cotton. The livestock sector is still reeling from issues with the food supply chain, restaurant closures from shelter-in-place restrictions and meat processing plants that have been "hot spots" of COVID-19 and then forced to remain open by President Trump's executive order signed on April 28. The View From Here column is "COVID-19 Now a Significant Factor in USDA’s Supply/Demand Analysis."
16 April 2020
In this issue, as restuarants have shut down and the travel industry has come to a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for livestock products is low. Grocery stores do have demand and empty shelves, but it's for different cuts of meat and livestock products than restaurants previously demanded. Farmers and ag industry professionals are waiting for details from USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue on direct farmer payments due to loss of demand and falling cash prices because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand for corn for ethanol is lowered in the April WASDE, and cotton demand is at an all-time low as the textile industry suffers a global economic slowdown unlike anything seen before and much more
17 March 2020
In this issue, global recessionary fears have spilled over to negatively impact commodity markets. This fearful selling is providing end-users with an opportunity to capture input prices far below budgeted levels in many cases. In USDA’s livestocks analysis, it increased its forecasts for production of each of beef, pork and poultry. Over 24 food and grocery executives held a phone call with President Trump Sunday to discuss various food supply chain factors during the COVID-19 outbreak. The companies “are working hand-in-hand with the federal government, as well as state and local leaders, to ensure food and essentials are constantly available,” Spokesman Judd Deere said.
15 May 2020
NOPA reported that members crushed 171.8 million bushels of soybeans in April. This was a new record for the month and came slightly above the midpoint of the wide range of published trade estimates from 163 million to 177 million bushels. Members produced 1.986 billion lbs. of soybean oil in April, versus 2.096 billion lbs. in March and 1.875 billion lbs. produced last year. This pegged an oil yield of 11.56 lbs. per bushel. NOPA members produced 4.045 million tons of soybean meal in April, which resulted in an improvement in the monthly soybean meal yield to 47.11 lbs. per bushel.
12 May 2020
In this issue,USDA put out their monthly WASDE Report on May 12, 2020. This is the first look at estimates for Marketing Year (MY) 2020-21. This was a much-anticipated report, as it usually is, but more so this year due to COVID-19 restrictions and the effect they have had on crops supply and demand as well as the food supply chain. Doane economists summarize and react to the report in the areas of Corn, Soy Products, Wheat and Cotton.
07 May 2020
In this issue, Statistics Canada released its Principal Field Crop Areas, March 2020 report Thursday morning, May 7, 2020. The data collection survey was conducted between March 2 and March 30 and included about 11,500 farmers. Statistics Canada warns that collection of data was complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic, giving an example where telephone interviews were suspended on March 16 in order to focus on mission-critical programs. Statistics Canada says this impacted the survey’s typically high response rate. We are noting that the number of farmers surveyed matches the total reported last year. However, the suspension of telephone interviews may suggest less follow-up qualification of the data in order to clarify reported data. Consequently, Statistics Canada warns “caution should be exercised when using these estimates”.
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