03 April 2020
In this issue, "The Relationship between Prospective Plantings and Actual Acreage," "March 1 Corn and Soy Stocks, Demand Implications," and "Safe Soybeans, Hazards to Crew: How COVID-19 is Impacting Trade" as well as the Market Watch table.
27 March 2020
In this issue, "Flooding Concerns to Remain into Planting Season," "Key Metrics for Hog and Cattle Populations Reflect Gains," "COVID-19 and Some Effects on the Ag Industry," and "Market Watch Table."
20 March 2020
In this issue, "Results of the 2020 Doane/Pro Farmer Planting Intentions Survey," "Update: Panicky World Markets Cast Pall Over U.S. Agriculture," "National Weather Service Spring Forecasts," and the Market Watch table.
03 April 2020
In this issue, there was a stunning corn acreage forecast this week. Crop tours report smaller Brazilian soybean crop. USDA pegs 2020 U.S. soy intentions at 83.5 million acres. Soyoil futures close lower despite firming energy prices. Doane again lowers U.S. ethanol output meaning fewer DDGs in feed rations. Wheat exports remain weak.
27 March 2020
In this issue,COVID-19 means ethanol demand destruction every day it persists. Anaylsts and economists are looking ahead to the USDA acreage and stocks reports out on Tuesday. CFTC data shows funds near flat in the soybean market. COVID-19 measures cast doubts of SAM soy availability. Global vegetable oil prices firm despite demand woes. Travel restrictions from COVID-19 hinder Argentina soy crushings. Wheat made two big upmoves this week on supply fears.
20 March 2020
In this issue,USDA announces China buys 756,000 corn tonnes for 2019/20. NOPA crush, stronger meal outlook boost Doane’s crush forecasts 10M bushels. Low energy prices hurt biodiesel demand. Quarantine populations expected to reduce soyoil consumption. USDA announces China bought 340,000 tonnes of HRW for 2020/21.
17 March 2020
In this issue, global recessionary fears have spilled over to negatively impact commodity markets. This fearful selling is providing end-users with an opportunity to capture input prices far below budgeted levels in many cases. In USDA’s livestocks analysis, it increased its forecasts for production of each of beef, pork and poultry. Over 24 food and grocery executives held a phone call with President Trump Sunday to discuss various food supply chain factors during the COVID-19 outbreak. The companies “are working hand-in-hand with the federal government, as well as state and local leaders, to ensure food and essentials are constantly available,” Spokesman Judd Deere said.
18 February 2020
In this issue, the coronavirus threat is affecting markets and creating worries over China's fulfillment of the Phase 1 trade deal. The Cattle on Feed Report estimated the largest inventory of cattle January 1 on lots since 2007. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) anticipates that net farm income will likely increase $3.1 billion (3.3%) to $96.7 billion in 2020 and much more.
15 January 2020
In this issue, China and the U.S. sign the phase one deal today. The View From Here is "The Commodity Markets May Be Coming Back." USMCA should be passed by the Senate today or tomorrow. USDA is thinking about holding the last MFP 2 payment to see how the markets react to the signing of the phase one deal with China.
31 March 2020
In this issue, the reports were a mixture of market bullish and bearish forecasts and updates. The quarterly USDA Grain Stocks report issued Tuesday focused upon domestic grain and soybean stocks as of March 1. These totals often provide significant insights into demand strength during the December-February quarter. The corn total at 7.953 billion bushels totaled 209 million bushels below industry forecasts. For the second consecutive quarter, it implied much stronger than expected feed use. Soybeans stocks at 2.253 billion bushels slightly exceeded industry expectations and implied low second quarter residual use. It is possible that the data will eventually lead to an upward revision to the size of the 2019 harvest. Wheat stocks at 1.412 billion bushels were 25 million less that the trade average forecast. It may result in a small adjustment to the USDA wheat residual use forecast. The USDA simultaneously released its annual Prospective Plantings report, which proved bearish for corn and bullish for soybeans, since corn acreage jumped to 96.990 million (versus the average forecast at 94.253 million), whereas soybean acres were up less than expected at 83.510 million (compared to the forecast average at 84.669 million acres). Projected spring wheat plantings at 12.590 million were very close to expectations of 12.615 million. The cotton figure was a second major high acreage surprise with farmers indicating intentions to plant 13.703 million acres and only down 35,000 acres from last year.
16 March 2020
The February 2020 NOPA Report was released on March 16, 2020. NOPA reported that members crushed 166.3 million bushels of soybeans in February. This met expectations for a new record total for February as crushings were modestly above both Doane’s and the average of published analyst estimates. Members produced 1.910 billion lbs. of soybean oil in the month, versus 2.035 billion lbs. in January and 1.807 billion lbs. produced last year. This pegged an oil yield of 11.49 lbs. per bushel. NOPA members produced 3.911 million tons of soybean meal in February, which results in an improvement in the monthly soybean meal yield to 47.04 lbs. per bushel.
10 March 2020
Corn futures prices held gains of three to four cents before and after the release of the monthly supply/demand report. The soybean complex appeared to shrug off this month’s reports for the most part. Beans lost a portion of earlier gains following the somewhat bearish world figures, while the soybean products were little changed. Wheat futures drifted lower following today’s report despite slightly supportive world stocks figures. Cotton prices were moderately volatile, trading both sides of unchanged after the report with later trading favoring to small gains.
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