26 June 2020
The US livestock markets have been devastated by COVID-19 mitigation efforts directed to packing plants that have limited animals processed. Updated views of the flows of animals and price impacts for cattle, hogs, and broilers. Specific to hogs, latest quarterly hogs and pigs data find farmers responding to low prices with plans to reduce farrowings. USDA releases quarterly grain stocks and updated acreage totals on June 30. We review past performances against trade estimates and price action post reports.
19 June 2020
We continue our series of long-term overviews of the world''s major row crops with excerpts from the International report of the prospects for global corn to 2029. Seasonally, the 2020 growing season is progressing toward the peak period for corn growth and reproduction. Price volatility usually picks up and during most years, there is a summer corn rally. Are we in one now? We examine the recent performance of December corn futures and how that compares with past years. NWS releases its forecasts for July weather.
12 June 2020
Chart signals suggest agricultural commodity markets have put in major so-called bottoms. We explore futures chart analysis for several of the crop and livestock markets. The Census Bureau released its April trade data. There was disappointment on the US side about the apparent slow progress by China in not moving more quickly to fulfill its agricultural purchase commitments under the Phase One trade agreement.
31 July 2020
Corn and soybean prices were under pressure this week from improving crop conditions. Weather outlooks were favorable. China made additional large purchases. Soy oil gained on news of large use for biodiesel in May.
24 July 2020
Chinese buying of soybeans and corn provides some support, whereas favorable crop conditions are bearish. Wheat gaining value from export demand for soft red winter.
17 July 2020
Major factors moving crop prices over the past week included the actual and forecast weather, Chinese buying of major amounts of corn and soybeans, the monthly NOPA crush report, and the Trump Administrations' rhetoric against China.
30 July 2020
Corn and soybean yield prospects appeared to be very strong as crops headed into their reproductive stages. Wheat harvesting is well along with moderately favorable prospects for yields. Cotton production is about average. All crops are impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Global supplies are abundant. China is buying US agricultural products under the Phase One trade agreement. We lay out our latest supply/demand forecasts and views for planted acres out to 2024/25.
29 June 2020
Corn, soybean, rice and cotton ratings increased this past week. Ratings benefited from rains in the eastern Midwest, Delta, and Southeast. Spring wheat plunged on dry weather in the northern Plains.
22 June 2020
There were consistent losses in corn and soybean conditions in the eastern Midwest last week. West of the Mississippi River, corn and soybeans performed somewhat better. The winter wheat harvest made rapid progress. Cotton and soybean plantings are nearly finished for the season. Heat and dryness in the southern Plains stressed cotton and its rating is now sharply below normal. Similarly, spring wheat ratings suffered a setback in North Dakota for the second week in a row.
15 June 2020
The corn crop registered a surprising 4 point drop in its condition rating to 71% good to excellent. Wheat ratings were also lower. The cotton and soybean ratings were steady while rice added another point. Soybean and cotton plantings should be mostly finished in another week. The winter wheat harvest is just moving into Kansas and the lower Midwest.
19 May 2020
In this issue, on May 12, USDA released its latest Supply/Demand reports. As is typical, the agency included the new-crop forecasts for wheat, soybeans, corn and cotton. The livestock sector is still reeling from issues with the food supply chain, restaurant closures from shelter-in-place restrictions and meat processing plants that have been "hot spots" of COVID-19 and then forced to remain open by President Trump's executive order signed on April 28. The View From Here column is "COVID-19 Now a Significant Factor in USDA’s Supply/Demand Analysis."
15 May 2020
NOPA reported that members crushed 171.8 million bushels of soybeans in April. This was a new record for the month and came slightly above the midpoint of the wide range of published trade estimates from 163 million to 177 million bushels. Members produced 1.986 billion lbs. of soybean oil in April, versus 2.096 billion lbs. in March and 1.875 billion lbs. produced last year. This pegged an oil yield of 11.56 lbs. per bushel. NOPA members produced 4.045 million tons of soybean meal in April, which resulted in an improvement in the monthly soybean meal yield to 47.11 lbs. per bushel.
12 May 2020
In this issue,USDA put out their monthly WASDE Report on May 12, 2020. This is the first look at estimates for Marketing Year (MY) 2020-21. This was a much-anticipated report, as it usually is, but more so this year due to COVID-19 restrictions and the effect they have had on crops supply and demand as well as the food supply chain. Doane economists summarize and react to the report in the areas of Corn, Soy Products, Wheat and Cotton.
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